Currency Update for Exporters and Importers :3rd August 2018

Insignia Consultants

New Delhi

Friday, August 03, 2018

TIME: 9:52 am IST          

DAILY FOREX REPORT FOR EXPORTERS AND IMPORTERS

(inter-bank prices below)

Yen is steady. Euro and cable have fallen against the US dollar. Traders are waiting for US July Nonfarm payrolls. Trade war news will be a bigger mover for global currency markets than the NFP. The first half of next week does not have any big economic data release worldwide. Today’s closing trend should continue into next week.

India

Continued changes to GST is not a good thing for domestic industry as it encourages imports. Overall pressure will be there to fall more against the US dollar as India enters a three month period of high festival related imports. So far government has not taken any significant measures to curb useless Chinese imports. If measures are not taken over the next two weeks, Indian small scale manufacturers and tiny scale manufacturers will suffer the most. Over the past few years, I have seen curbs on Chinese imports like fire crackers, pooja idols etc only from September. My experience is that most of the very large Chinese importers buy in August. Monday’s usd/inr close is very crucial for a short term direction.

US dollar-Indian Rupee (usd/inr CMP 68.6850):

One Support: 68.5025
One Resistance: 68.8975

o      It should trade in wider 68.5025-68.8975-69.1675 range till Monday.

o      Sellers will be there only below 68.5025.

UK Pound/Indian Rupee (Gbp/inr CMP 89.4350):
One Support: 89.3225
One Resistance: 89.6175

o      200 day moving average at 89.5875 is the key long term resistance or key price to watch.

o      There will be sellers as long as gbp/inr trades below 89.5875 to 89.0575 and 88.8475.

o      Gbp/inr needs to trade over 89.5875 till Monday to rise to 90.2675

TO VIEW FULL REPORT U NEED TO PAY OR SUBSCRIBE

FAQ

Why Do I ask exporters and importers to use trailing stop loss? Some day’s currency markets are very volatile. Trend (short term as well as medium term) change at the flick of coin without any advance warning. In order to make the most of the volatility it is preferable to use trailing stop loss using technical analysis as basis. Those exporters and importers do not wish to take the risk, should take a forward cover or hedge in future and options market if export or import price near cost.

Disclaimer: Any opinions as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific currencies, crypto currency, metals and commodities reflect the views of the individual analyst, In no event shall Insignia Consultants or its employees have any liability for any losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this material; or in any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of Information. Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice. Prepared by Chintan Karnani

NOTES TO THE ABOVE REPORT

PLEASE NOTE: HOLDS MEANS HOLDS ON DAILY CLOSING BASIS

ALL PRICES ARE IN INDIAN RUPEE UNLESS OTHERWISE SPECIFIED

Indian Standard Time (IST): +5:30 GMT

Current Market Price (CMP)

All foreign exchange prices are for inter-bank rates.