Insignia
Consultants
New Delhi
Thursday,
August 02, 2018
TIME:
9:25 am IST
DAILY FOREX REPORT FOR
EXPORTERS AND IMPORTERS
(inter-bank prices below)
FOMC hints of a September
interest rate hike. There were no surprises. July global manufacturing index fall
will increase volatility in the currency markets. Traders and investors are
extra cautious. This is reflected by lack of one price moves after the FOMC and
decent US July private ADP numbers. Bank of England needs to raise interest
rates to prevent cable from sinking. Be prepared for two percent one way moves
in the Japanese yen against the US dollar anytime. US dollar Index will sink
only if July nonfarm payrolls comes in below 160,000 without any significant
previous month revisions. The next three trading sessions is very crucial for
the US dollar.
India
Interest rate hike by the RBI
yesterday and a fall in global crude oil prices has resulted in rupee opening
lower. There will be more fall if importers do not buy. Global factors will
affect more than domestic factors. Euro/US dollar (euro/usd CMP 1.1654):
One Support: 1.1609
One Resistance: 1.1722
o Euro/usd will break free from
1.1550-1.1770 range and form a new range by Monday.
o Sell off will be there if 1.1743 is
not broken by Monday to 1.1530 and 1.1415.
o Better to remain on the sidelines
today.
UK Pound/US dollar (gbp/usd CMP 1.3104): One Support: 1.3036
One Resistance: 1.3177
o Cable needs to trade over 1.3036 till
Monday to rise to 1.3177 and 1.3247.
o Sell off will be there only below 1.3036
today.
o A daily close below 1.3036 today and
tomorrow will be very bearish for August.
US dollar/Japanese Yen (usd/jpy CMP 111.55): One Support: 111.32
One Resistance: 111.97
o Sellers will be there below 111.32 to
110.61.
o Yen needs to trade over 111.97 to rise
further.
US dollar/Indonesia Rupiah (usd/idr CMP 14462.50): One Support: 14415.30
One Resistance: 14494.00
o Rupiah needs to trade over 14415 to
rise to 14494 and 14531.20.
o Crash or sell off will be there below
14415.
FAQ
Why Do I ask exporters and importers
to use trailing stop loss? Some day’s currency markets are very volatile. Trend (short term as well
as medium term) change at the flick of coin without any advance warning. In
order to make the most of the volatility it is preferable to use trailing stop
loss using technical analysis as basis. Those exporters and importers do not
wish to take the risk, should take a forward cover or hedge in future and
options market if export or import price near cost.
Disclaimer: Any opinions as to the commentary, market
information, and future direction of prices of specific currencies, crypto
currency, metals and commodities reflect the views of the individual analyst,
In no event shall Insignia Consultants or its employees have any liability for
any losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction
taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this material;
or in any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of Information. Nothing in this article is, or should be construed
as, investment advice. Prepared by Chintan Karnani
NOTES TO THE ABOVE
REPORT
PLEASE NOTE: HOLDS MEANS HOLDS ON
DAILY CLOSING BASIS
ALL PRICES ARE IN INDIAN RUPEE UNLESS
OTHERWISE SPECIFIED
Indian Standard Time (IST): +5:30 GMT
Current Market Price (CMP)
All foreign exchange prices are for
inter-bank rates.
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