Monday, August 06,
2018
FOREX SPOT WEEKLY TECHNICAL REPORT
(inter-bank prices below)
What
next by the Federal Reserve after two interest rate hikes this year is the
answer which traders will ask themselves? US economy is going through a golden
period. Central banks are raising interest rates globally to curb ever rising
inflation. US dollar is getting the benefit of global reduction in liquidity.
Trump tax cut effects are still continuing. There is a working section in USA
which believes that there could be more tax cuts announced before the US senate
elections. These kinds of speculative news is supporting the greenback.
US
dollar Index is hovering around 95.00. US dollar Index needs to trade over
95.80 for a fortnight to start another wave of rise. In case US dollar index
does not break 95.80 for the rest of the US dollar, then a medium term top will
be formed. US dollar Index should crash in the final quarter of the US dollar
if it does not fall in August-September period. Europe’s political issues will
be over this year as it near the worst. In the past many of us the analyst had
written off euro but it had comeback with a vengeance.
Brexit
woes will not be over soon. Lack of clarity is preventing traders and investors
alike from going long. Narrowing down of interest rate differential will
support cable sooner than later. One should be prepared for big five percent
one way move in cable any time.
There
is no big US economic data release this week or even in Europe and UK. It
should be a technical trade. US-China trade spat news should will affect the
global financial markets. There will be sudden one way moves.
India
at a glance
If
crude oil falls, then rupee will nosedive against the US dollar. FII flows will
be positive. There can be some bond market inflows as well. Fundamentally,
Indian economy will see some cyclical higher growth in the upcoming four months
and thereafter a big drop in consumption. Once the festivals are over, there
will be an economic slump.
I
have never believed in service sector growth and service sector jobs growth as
the key parameter of nation building. They are like the sale team of the
company. The sales team gets fired first whenever a company faces slowdown.
Similarly service sector jobs gets fired first whenever the economy slows. A
pizza delivery boy or a courier delivery boy gets fired first when there is an
economic slowdown. Core sector growth is still reeling under the influence on
continued changes in Goods and service tax laws. The labor intensive small
scale industry and tiny scale industry are nervous to expand as compliance cost
of GST and the daily changes in GST has increased sharply.
Political
parties are gearing for the key state elections in November. Rajasthan, Madhya
Pradesh and Chhattisgarh are among them. These are all BJP ruled states. The
political mudslinging has begun against the BJP by an extremely united
opposition. Short term global investors will be fence sitters till November.
Long term investors will continue to invest in India as the growth story is
nowhere near saturation point.
UK
Pound -Indian Rupee (gbp/inr)
Current
Market Price: 89.1600
Support:
88.8150-88.9225-89.1475-89.4675-89.7625
Resistance:
90.2550-90.4625-90.9650-90.9225-91.1750
Weekly
View:
· 200 day moving average
at 89.6025 is the key weekly resistance. Cable needs to trade over 89.6025 to
be in bullish zone.
· 100 day moving average
at 90.9650 is the key resistance.
· 100% retracement is at
89.0425. There will be another wave of sell off below 89.0425 to 88.5250 and
87.8900.
Japanese
Yen -Indian Rupee (jpy/inr)
Current
Market Price: 61.6000
Support:
60.6900-60.9075-61.1450-61.3850
Resistance:
62.0550-62.2925-62.5100-62.7100
Weekly
View:
· 100 day moving average
at 61.5000 is the immediate support.
· 200 day moving average
at 60.1800 is the key long term support.
· 100% retracement is at
61.9400. There will be another wave of rise over 61.9400 to 62.2925 and
62.7100.
· Seller or bearish trend
will be there only below 61.1450.
· Trend is neutral.
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Disclaimer: Any opinions as to the commentary, market
information, and future direction of prices of specific currencies, crypto
currency, metals and commodities reflect the views of the individual analyst,
In no event shall Insignia Consultants or its employees have any liability for
any losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction
taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this material;
or in any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of Information. Nothing in this article is, or should be construed
as, investment advice. Prepared by Chintan Karnani
NOTES TO THE ABOVE
REPORT
PLEASE NOTE: HOLDS MEANS HOLDS ON
DAILY CLOSING BASIS
ALL PRICES ARE IN INDIAN RUPEE UNLESS
OTHERWISE SPECIFIED
Indian Standard Time (IST): +5:30 GMT
Current Market Price (CMP)
All foreign exchange prices are for
inter-bank rates.
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