Insignia Consultants
New Delhi
Monday, August 27, 2018
FOREX SPOT WEEKLY TECHNICAL REPORT
(inter-bank prices below)
The first two days of the week will be
very crucial for the US dollar. If the US dollar falls on Monday and Tuesday,
then it will sink. There is still massive long positions in the US dollar. US
dollar Index is trading below 100 week and 200 week moving averages. It can
fall to 93.60 and 92.30 in the short term if it trades below 95.60 on Monday
and Tuesday. On one side is the US economy and trade which are supportive of
the US dollar. On the other side is the US president Trump and his brewing
political troubles causing the US dollar to selloff.
There is no hundred percent chance of
two or more interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve this year. (after
comments from chairman Powell in jacksonhole on Friday). Traders are looking for clues for long term
widening of interest rate gap between USA and rest of the world. As the week
progresses traders will take positions for September. I believe that August
number for USA and globally will be the key driver for global currency markets.
August is first the month where trade tariff will start hitting nations.
Still there are net short positions in
euro. They can get converted into longs if there is even one percent chance of
US president getting impeached.
India at a glance
Indian exporters and importers should
signs of trend reversal in euro/inr, gbp/inr and jpy/inr. Rupee will be very
volatile against the US dollar. Any hints of a fall will result in exporters
selling and importers staying away from the market, Month end factors will
increase volatility. US dollar needs to weaken for the rupee to sell off.
Futures and Options expiry in the
currency markets as well as stock markets can cause sudden and abrupt trend
change. Economic policy news will be the key for the rupee apart from direction
of the US dollar.
Euro-Indian Rupee (usd/inr)
Current Market Price: 81.3200
Support: 79.2900-79.7775-80.3050-80.5450-80.8425-81.1275
Resistance: 81.7975-82.0950-82.3350-82.8625-83.3500
Weekly View:
· 100% retracement is at
81.6825.
· Only a break of 81.6825
will result in a rise to 82.3350 and 83.3500.
· Corrections upto
80.3050 are a part of the bullish trend.
· Bearish trend will be
there only on a fall below 80.3050.
· There will be very two
way sharp price moves.
US dollar-Japanese Yen (usd/jpy)
Current Market Price: 111.07
Support: 108.90-109.47-110.09-110.36-110.71-111.04
Resistance: 111.67-111.92-112.18-112.56-113.07-113.64
Weekly View:
· Yen needs to break and
trade over 111.53 this week to rise to 112.18 and 113.64.
· 100 day moving average
at 110.52 is the key weekly support.
· 200 day moving average
at 109.77 is the key long term support.
· Sell off will be there
if (a) Yen does not break 112.12 (b) yen falls below 110.87.
· The region between
111.53-112.12 is an anything can happen zone.
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Disclaimer: Any
opinions as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of
prices of specific currencies, crypto currency, metals and commodities reflect
the views of the individual analyst, In no event shall Insignia Consultants or
its employees have any liability for any losses incurred in connection with any
decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the
information provided in this material; or in any delays, inaccuracies, errors
in, or omissions of Information. Nothing in
this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice. Prepared by
Chintan Karnani
NOTES
TO THE ABOVE REPORT
PLEASE NOTE: HOLDS
MEANS HOLDS ON DAILY CLOSING BASIS
ALL PRICES ARE IN
INDIAN RUPEE UNLESS OTHERWISE SPECIFIED
Indian Standard Time
(IST): +5:30 GMT
Current Market Price
(CMP)
All foreign exchange
prices are for inter-bank rates.
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