Insignia
Consultants
New Delhi
Friday,
August 24, 2018
TIME:
9:10 am IST
DAILY FOREX REPORT FOR
EXPORTERS AND IMPORTERS
(inter-bank prices below)
Trump’s internal political
problems will ensure that global trade war rises only further. Trump needs some
media diversion and public diversion before the US senate elections in
November. Trade war and a strong US dollar creates nationalistic pride. I will
not be surprised if there are more tax cuts before the US senate elections. US
dollar can gain for a few months till October and thereafter a steady decline.
Europe has its political issues. Germany’s Merkel approval ratings are at an
all-time low. Brexit and its related issues haunts the pound. Italy has a right
wing government. Europe is also getting affected US trade tariff. Australia has
political problem. Traders and investors are finding US dollar as a safe haven
right now. I believe that excesses creates bubble. US dollar, if it continues
to rise in September and October will be in a bubble zone.
Fundamentals are strong
for US economy. Trade war will result in a bit of go-slow approach by American
corporates on expansion.
India
Confusion will prevail in
emerging market stocks and emerging market currencies till the US senate
elections in November. Indian stock markets will rise as it is one of the
progressive growth stories without any political uncertainty. However Indian
stock markets will be vulnerable to sharp corrections. Rupee will be very
volatile. Domestic news will be the key.
One Support: 62.7800
One Resistance: 63.2800
o Yen needs to trade over 62.92 to rise
to 63.4700 and 63.6000.
o Sellers will be there below 62.9200.
One Support: 14623.30
One Resistance: 14700.50
o Only a break of 14700.50 will result
in 14766 and 14823.
o Sellers will be there below 14623.30.
o There can be very sharp two way moves
before close.
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FAQ
Why Do I ask exporters and importers
to use trailing stop loss? Some day’s currency markets are very volatile. Trend (short term as well
as medium term) change at the flick of coin without any advance warning. In
order to make the most of the volatility it is preferable to use trailing stop
loss using technical analysis as basis. Those exporters and importers do not
wish to take the risk, should take a forward cover or hedge in future and
options market if export or import price near cost.
Disclaimer: Any opinions as to the commentary, market
information, and future direction of prices of specific currencies, crypto
currency, metals and commodities reflect the views of the individual analyst,
In no event shall Insignia Consultants or its employees have any liability for
any losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction
taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this material;
or in any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of Information. Nothing in this article is, or should be construed
as, investment advice. Prepared by Chintan Karnani
NOTES TO THE ABOVE
REPORT
PLEASE NOTE: HOLDS MEANS HOLDS ON
DAILY CLOSING BASIS
ALL PRICES ARE IN INDIAN RUPEE UNLESS
OTHERWISE SPECIFIED
Indian Standard Time (IST): +5:30 GMT
Current Market Price (CMP)
All foreign exchange prices are for
inter-bank rates.
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