Currency Report for Exporters and Importers : 26th September 2018

Insignia Consultants

New Delhi

Wednesday, September 26, 2018

TIME: 9:11 am IST          

DAILY FOREX REPORT FOR EXPORTERS AND IMPORTERS

(inter-bank prices below)

Markets expect US dollar to weaken after the FOMC. They are positioning themselves for the same. If the US dollar Index falls then two hundred day moving average around 92.40 will be tested. If the US dollar index trades below 92.40 on or after 8^th October then chances of 87.40 will be high before end October. US dollar will gain only if December interest rate hike is confirmed or growth targets are increased by the Federal Reserve. Just remember that European central bank meeting and bank of England meeting are towards end October. Friday’s closing is important and not tomorrow’s closing from a technical perspective.

India

I expect rupee to form a short term top either today and tomorrow. Tuesday (2^nd October) is a national holiday. Traders will start taking positions for end October today and tomorrow. RBI and SEBI are alert to intervene in currency markets as well as equities. Right now, there is no need to panic. I will panic only if the rupee continues to weaken against the US dollar in the second week of October. Only black spot for the Indian rupee markets is the every rising global crude oil prices. RBI meet on 5^th October is expected to raise interest rates by a quarter. RBI is raising interest rates to ensure the continued foreign inflows into bond markets (just like most emerging markets). Other inflation is still under control. Interest rate hike can be postponed after Diwali.

Japanese Yen/Indian Rupee (Jpy/inr CMP 64.2800):
One Support: 64.1350.
One Resistance: 64.7250

o      Crash will be there only below 64.1350

o      Look for signs of trend reversal.

o      Yen/inr needs to trade over 64.7250 to be in bullish zone.

o      Yen/inr will see big 150-200 paisa one way moves anytime till Friday.

US dollar/Japanese Yen (usd/jpy CMP 112.91):
One Support: 112.75
One Resistance: 113.21

o      Only a break of 113.21 will trigger a rise to 113.47 and 113.96.

o      Bearish trend will be there below 112.75.

o      Yen has to break and trade over 114.12 by 8^th October. In case yen does not break 114.12 by 8^th October, then chances of a fall to 107.98 will be very high.

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Disclaimer: Any opinions as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific currencies, crypto currency, metals and commodities reflect the views of the individual analyst, In no event shall Insignia Consultants or its employees have any liability for any losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this material; or in any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of Information. Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice. Prepared by Chintan Karnani

NOTES TO THE ABOVE REPORT

PLEASE NOTE: HOLDS MEANS HOLDS ON DAILY CLOSING BASIS

ALL PRICES ARE IN INDIAN RUPEE UNLESS OTHERWISE SPECIFIED

Indian Standard Time (IST): +5:30 GMT

Current Market Price (CMP)

All foreign exchange prices are for inter-bank rates.