Insignia Consultants
New Delhi
Wednesday,
August 7, 2019
TIME:
9:45 am IST
US DOLLAR –INDIAN RUPEE
(USD/INR) SHORT TERM VIEW
Usd/Inr (Spot/Inter-bank)
Current price: 70.9100
Key support: 69.9050 / Key
resistances: 71.6225
Immediate resistance:
70.9875 / Immediate support: 70.5675
Kashmir
issues is one the reason for the rupee to weaken against the US dollar. Global
investors will postpone their short term India investment as well as long term
India investment for now. Indirect war cloud looms with Pakistan and China as
well. China could use war with India as a diversion tactic on its Hong Kong
failure. Kashmir and its developments will be closely watched. There are
jobless in every sector. Temporary workers are fired in auto sector, auto
showroom and a lot of other sector. Strangely media only reports job losses
from large corporates. RBI meeting will be the key today. Better not comment on
interest rate stance.
Global
recession risk is very high. USA-China trade spat is a recession path towards
infinity. Global risk and domestic factors are contributing towards a weaker
rupee against the US dollar.
Technically
speaking: (a) 50 week moving average at 70.5675 is the immediate support. Rupee
can rise to 71.6225 and 72.7950 in the short term as long as it trades over
70.5675. (b) Usd/inr needs to trade over 70.5675 to fall.
Inflation
will rise. The cost of fruits, vegetables, spices is on the rise. Living cost
is rising for the masses. Salaries are stable. Savings rate will only fall
and/or consumer debt will only increase. Interest rates should not be cut.
Interest rate cut will not reduce cost of living or increase employment.
Monday
(12th August) is a holiday due to bakri eid. 15th August,
Independence day holiday. Two national holidays next week. There will be
positions squaring and rebuilding for the same as the week progresses. Trend
will 14th August will be the key for the rupee. Anything can happen.
Not sure if RBI will intervene.
Disclaimer: Any opinions as to the commentary, market
information, and future direction of prices of specific currencies, metals and
commodities reflect the views of the individual analyst, In no event shall
Insignia Consultants or its employees have any liability for any losses
incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any
party in reliance upon the information provided in this material; or in any
delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of Information. Nothing in this
article is, or should be construed as, investment advice. All analyses used
herein are subjective opinions of the author and should not be considered as
specific investment advice. Investors/Traders must consider all relevant risk
factors including their own personal financial situation before trading.
Websitewww.insigniaconsultants.in. Prepared by
Chintan Karnani
Disclosure: Insignia
consultants or it employees do not have any trading positions on the trading
strategies mentioned above. Our clients do have positions on the trading
strategies mentioned in the above report.
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NOTES TO THE ABOVE REPORT
ALL VIEWS ARE INTRADAY UNLESS OTHERWISE
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THE
TIME GIVEN IN THE REPORT IS THE TIME OF COMPLETION OF REPORT
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