Insignia Consultants
New Delhi
Thursday, August 1, 2019
TIME: 8:45 am IST
FOREX REPORT (inter-bank prices below) Thursday, August
1, 2019
Federal Reserve chairman dented Trump and other
US dollar bears yesterday. Aggressive interest rate cuts will not be there is
the message. Traders are expecting one more interest rate cut in the final
quarter of the year. Currency prices will reflect nation’s fundamentals for the
rest of the year. US dollar has the edge. But is over brought. Traders are
giving the benefit of doubt to the greenback as Eurozone, UK and Japan do not
have any economically positive news. Focus will shift the US July nonfarm
payrolls. All is over not for US dollar bears. Who knows NFP can cause a
selloff in the greenback.
One needs to trade very carefully in the rupee
and rupiah. Stock markets will fall. Bond yields will be the key to currency
price moves in rupee as well as rupiah.
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Forex Daily Technical Levels
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usd/inr
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usd/idr
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euro/usd
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gbp/usd
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usd/jpy
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CMP
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69.2350
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14097.00
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1.1049
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1.2127
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109.16
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S5
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66.6450
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13928.00
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1.0857
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1.1843
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107.54
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S4
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67.2666
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13968.56
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1.0903
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1.1911
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107.93
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S3
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67.9400
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14012.50
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1.0953
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1.1985
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108.35
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S2
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68.2456
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14032.44
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1.0976
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1.2019
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108.54
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S1
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68.6238
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14057.12
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1.1004
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1.2060
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108.78
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R1
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69.8462
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14136.88
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1.1094
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1.2194
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109.54
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R2
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70.2244
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14161.56
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1.1122
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1.2235
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109.78
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R3
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70.5300
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14181.50
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1.1145
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1.2269
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109.97
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R4
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71.2034
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14225.44
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1.1195
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1.2343
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110.39
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R5
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71.8250
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14266.00
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1.1241
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1.2411
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110.78
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CMP= Current price market price
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ABOVE TECHNICALS ARE ONLY FOR REFERENCE
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USD/INR: (a) 100 day moving average at 69.3600 is the key resistance
or key price to watch. Rupee needs to trade over 69.3600 to rise to 69.5050 and
69.9300.
USD/IDR: (a) Rupiah needs to trade over 14047 till Monday to rise to
14141 and 14296. (b) Key price to watch is at 14091. A daily close over 14091
today and tomorrow and open over 14091 on Monday can result in 14296 by next
week. (c) Sellers will be there below 14047.
Euro/usd:
(a) Key support is at 1.1002. (b) Crash
or another wave of sell off will be there below 1.002 to 1.0943 and 1.0853. (c)
Momentum is down. But oversold. There can be pullback rallies as long as
euro/usd trades over 1.1002 to 1.1190.
Gbp/usd: (a) 100% retracement is at 1.2106. (b) Crash or another wave
of sell off will be there below 1.2106 to 1.2046 and 1.1996. (d) Intraday cable needs to trade over 1.2174 to be in
bullish zone.
Usd/jpy: (a) Key resistance is at 109.54 ( (b) Yen needs to break and
trade over 109.54 to rise to 109.81 and 110.48. (c) Small sell off will be
there below 108.88.
Disclaimer: Any
opinions as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of
prices of specific currencies, crypto currency, metals and commodities reflect
the views of the individual analyst, In no event shall Insignia Consultants or
its employees have any liability for any losses incurred in connection with any
decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the
information provided in this material; or in any delays, inaccuracies, errors
in, or omissions of Information. Nothing in
this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice. Prepared by
Chintan Karnani
NOTES
TO THE ABOVE REPORT
PLEASE NOTE: HOLDS
MEANS HOLDS ON DAILY CLOSING BASIS
ALL PRICES ARE IN
INDIAN RUPEE UNLESS OTHERWISE SPECIFIED
Indian Standard Time
(IST): +5:30 GMT
Current Market Price
(CMP)
All foreign exchange
prices are for inter-bank rates.
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