Friday, July 26,
2019
Big seven days ahead for currency markets.
Today is the US GDP numbers. A good number which beats street expectation can
result in US dollar Index breaking past 98.00 and stock markets sinking. The
reverse will happen if US GDP numbers shock on the lower side. Early next week
is the US-China trade talks followed by FOMC meet in the middle of the week and
ending the week at US July nonfarm payrolls. Anything can happen. To me the US
dollar is over brought. Momentum is bullish for the greenback. US bond yields
will also play its role in the currency markets.
Indian and Indonesian central banks are
expected to cut interest rates over the coming months. I just hope that
interest rate cuts propel the economy.
Brace for very high volatility over the next
seven days. Currency markets can turn into a Las Vegas. Fundamentals are strong
for the US economy as compared to its European and UK peers.
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Forex Daily Technical Levels
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usd/inr
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usd/idr
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euro/usd
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gbp/usd
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usd/jpy
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CMP
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69.1075
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14011.00
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1.1147
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1.2447
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108.58
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S5
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68.8325
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13876.00
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1.1023
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1.2306
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107.52
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S4
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68.8985
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13908.40
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1.1053
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1.2340
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107.77
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S3
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68.9700
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13943.50
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1.1085
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1.2377
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108.05
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S2
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69.0025
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13959.43
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1.1100
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1.2393
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108.18
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S1
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69.0426
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13979.14
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1.1118
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1.2414
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108.33
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R1
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69.1724
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14042.86
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1.1176
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1.2480
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108.83
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R2
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69.2126
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14062.57
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1.1194
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1.2501
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108.98
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R3
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69.2450
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14078.50
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1.1209
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1.2518
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109.11
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R4
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69.3165
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14113.60
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1.1241
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1.2554
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109.39
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R5
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69.3825
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14146.00
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1.1271
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1.2588
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109.64
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CMP= Current price market price
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ABOVE TECHNICALS ARE ONLY FOR REFERENCE
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USD/INR: (a) Fifty day moving average at 69.1775 is the key
resistance or key price to watch. Rupee needs to trade over 69.1775 today to
rise to 69.3750. (b) Sell off will be there below the initial support of
69.0250.
USD/IDR: (a) Rupiah can rise to 14189.20 by next week as long as it
trades over 13963. (b) Crash will be there only below 13963.
Euro/usd:
(a) There is a big long term support
between 1.1069 and 1.1084. (b) Euro/usd needs to trade over 1.1069-1.1084 till
next week to rise to 1.1201 and 1.1288. (c) Crash will be there only below
1.1069 (d) Momentum is very bearish. Technically oversold.
Gbp/usd: (a) Initial support is at 1.2430 with 1.2402 as key support.
(b) Initial resistance is at 1.2500. There will be a quick rise over 1.2500 to
1.2599 and 1.2773. (c) Be prepared for
250-300 pips one way move in cable anytime.
Usd/jpy: (a) Fifty day moving average at 108.16 is the initial support
with 107.47 as key medium term support. (b) Yen needs to trade over 108.16 to
rise to 109.10 and 109.56.
Disclaimer: Any
opinions as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of
prices of specific currencies, crypto currency, metals and commodities reflect
the views of the individual analyst, In no event shall Insignia Consultants or
its employees have any liability for any losses incurred in connection with any
decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information
provided in this material; or in any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or
omissions of Information. Nothing in this
article is, or should be construed as, investment advice. Prepared by Chintan
Karnani
NOTES
TO THE ABOVE REPORT
PLEASE NOTE: HOLDS
MEANS HOLDS ON DAILY CLOSING BASIS
ALL PRICES ARE IN
INDIAN RUPEE UNLESS OTHERWISE SPECIFIED
Indian Standard Time
(IST): +5:30 GMT
Current Market Price
(CMP)
All foreign exchange
prices are for inter-bank rates.
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