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manan
9810226906
Insignia Consultants
New Delhi
Tuesday, June 11, 2019
TIME: 9:10 am IST
US DOLLAR –INDIAN RUPEE (USD/INR) SHORT TERM VIEW
Usd/Inr (Spot/Inter-bank) Current price: 69.4825
Key support: 68.4700
Key resistances: 70.5200
Immediate resistance: 69.1225
Immediate support: 69.7475
Rupee will break free from 69.000-70.1000
consolidation phase and form a new range anytime soon. The positives are (i)
Low global energy price (ii) Hope and expectation that Modi 2.0 will take
measures for higher employment and growth. The upcoming budget will be growth
and employment oriented. The risk are (a) Delayed monsoon rains, (b) Trade war
risk (c) Bond market inflows and outflows. Bond yields have fallen drastically
globally. Investors are investing in Indian bond market as they offer higher
yield as compared to global peer. Any rise in global bond yields can result in
short term outflows from Indian bond market.
Technically speaking: (a) Key long term support
is at 68.4700. Crash or another wave of sell off will be there only if usd/inr
trades below 68.4700. (b) 200 day moving average around 70.5200 is the key
resistance. Only a break of 70.5200 will result in 72.1050 and 74.0000. (c) Two
hundred week moving average is at 67.1625.
I will prefer to remain on the sidelines till
20th June (day after FOMC). Rupee should form a short term trend
only after 20th June. Volatility can rise till 20th June.
Monsoon progress picture will be quite clear by 20th June. Impact of
monsoon will be reflected in usd/inr price on or from 20th June.
Disclaimer: Any
opinions as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of
prices of specific currencies, crypto currency, metals and commodities reflect
the views of the individual analyst, In no event shall Insignia Consultants or
its employees have any liability for any losses incurred in connection with any
decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the
information provided in this material; or in any delays, inaccuracies, errors
in, or omissions of Information. Nothing in
this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice. Prepared by
Chintan Karnani
NOTES
TO THE ABOVE REPORT
PLEASE NOTE: HOLDS
MEANS HOLDS ON DAILY CLOSING BASIS
ALL PRICES ARE IN
INDIAN RUPEE UNLESS OTHERWISE SPECIFIED
Indian Standard Time
(IST): +5:30 GMT
Current Market Price
(CMP)
All foreign exchange
prices are for inter-bank rates.
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