FOREX REPORT : 20th June 2019

Insignia Consultants

New Delhi

Thursday, June 20, 2019

TIME: 2:23 pm IST

         

FOREX TECHNICAL LEVELS

(inter-bank prices below)

FOMC has started a global interest cut cycle. Federal Reserve is moving towards as softer interest rate regime. Most of the Asian nations are also moving towards a softer interest rate regime. Interest rate differential between USA and most nations will not change by much as every nation will follow the Federal Reserve. There is some speculation that bank of England will move towards an interest rate hike regime. If that is the case then cable can rise to 1.3000 in the short term. However Bank of England goes towards interest rate cut, then we begin the “global currency war”. It should a currency trader’s paradise for the next two weeks till US June nonfarm payrolls are released.

Asian central banks will face a dilemma of high inflation, strong currency and firm global energy price arising out of a weaker US dollar. Inflation is high in most Asian nations. A bad monsoon rain in India will result in inflation rising quickly till July.

USD/INR: (a) 100 day moving average of 69.6200 is the key price or key resistance. (c) Rupee needs to trade over 69.6200 to rise to 69.7650 and 69.9600. (b) Sell off till tomorrow will be there below 69.4100.

USD/IDR: (a) 7rend is down as long as rupiah trades below 14200 to 14095 and 13840. (b) A daily close below 14200 today and open below 14200 tomorrow will be very bearish for the short term.

Euro/usd: (a) 100 day moving average at 1.1263 is the key price to watch. (b) Euro/usd needs to trade over 1.1263 to rise to 1.1353 and 1.1500. (c) Small sell off will be there only below 1.1248. Key support till tomorrow is at 1.1218.

Gbp/usd: (a) Cable needs to trade over 1.2655 till tomorrow to rise to 1.2796 and 1.2907 (200 day MA). (b) Brexit factors are still bearish for cable. If the US dollar weakens today and till Monday then chances of 1.3000 before 30^th June will be very high. (c) Crash or another wave of sell off will be there only below 1.2557 till 30^th June.

Usd/jpy: (a) Overall trend is down as long as yen trades below 108.12 with 107.56 and 106.46 as price target. (b) Key long term support is at 107.56. Yen trades below 107.56 till Monday then chances of 105.68 will be very high. (c) Only a break of 108.12 will resume the upward trend.

Disclaimer: Any opinions as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific currencies, crypto currency, metals and commodities reflect the views of the individual analyst, In no event shall Insignia Consultants or its employees have any liability for any losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this material; or in any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of Information. Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice. Prepared by Chintan Karnani

NOTES TO THE ABOVE REPORT

PLEASE NOTE: HOLDS MEANS HOLDS ON DAILY CLOSING BASIS

ALL PRICES ARE IN INDIAN RUPEE UNLESS OTHERWISE SPECIFIED

Indian Standard Time (IST): +5:30 GMT

Current Market Price (CMP)

All foreign exchange prices are for inter-bank rates.