INDIAN RUPEE SHORT TERM VIEW: 30TH MAY 2019

Insignia Consultants

New Delhi

Thursday, May 30, 2019

TIME: 9:50 am IST

         

RUPEE SHORT TERM VIEW

Usd/Inr Current price: 69.7650

Key support: 68.2425

Key resistances: 69.9225-70.7325

There was expectation that rupee will fall to 68.00 and 66.00 against the US dollar if NDA/BJP comes to power with a powerful majority. Let’s put it this way. The Indian economy is in shambles. There is jobless growth. Growth and inflation as just statistical tools used by the elected representative to fool the public. Interest rate cuts does not affect the masses. Only large corporate benefits from interest rate cuts. Small and tiny sized enterprises are never passed the benefit of repo rate cuts. Interest rate cuts does not result in new and higher employment corporates and medium sized enterprises. Now a days cheap capital results in robotization of plants. Cheap capital is used to replace humans with machines/robots. Cheap capital in certain sectors creates unemployment and nothing else. Interest rate cuts will not create employment unless RBI forces banks to pass it the same to every section of the society.

There is lacs of unfilled jobs in the central government and state government. There are lacs of unfilled vacancies in state run schools and universities apart from central universities which can filled to create more jobs. Centre and state have to take the initiative first. Later corporates will follow the same.

Trade war between China and USA can be both positive and negative. Positive in the sense that Indian manufacturers can take advantage and increase US exports. Negative in the sense that China will use all the armour to use India as a dumping ground for its manufactured goods. Balance of trade between India-China will only rise in China’s favor.

More than half of India is under heat wave conditions. The meteorological department has asked farmers to delay sowing of crops dependent on monsoon rains. Progress of Monsoon rains will be the key.

To sum it off, India will get more and more foreign flows on the hope that Modi government is in a position to take bold measures for higher growth and employment. Even on a slower GDP growth, India is still better off than most of global peers.

Technically speaking: 200 day MA at 70.7350 is the key resistance. In case 70.7350 is not broken in June then chances of 68.2425 and 67.6050 will be very high.

Disclaimer: Any opinions as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific currencies, crypto currency, metals and commodities reflect the views of the individual analyst, In no event shall Insignia Consultants or its employees have any liability for any losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this material; or in any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of Information. Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice. Prepared by Chintan Karnani

NOTES TO THE ABOVE REPORT

PLEASE NOTE: HOLDS MEANS HOLDS ON DAILY CLOSING BASIS

ALL PRICES ARE IN INDIAN RUPEE UNLESS OTHERWISE SPECIFIED

Indian Standard Time (IST): +5:30 GMT

Current Market Price (CMP)

All foreign exchange prices are for inter-bank rates.