NSE Currency Futures Report : 19th March 2019

Insignia Consultants

New Delhi

Tuesday, March 19, 2019

TIME: 9:14 am IST

         

NSE CURRENCY FUTURES REPORT

Why is the rupee gaining? High inflows is the key reason. RBI is planning to limit gains. Speculation is there that the RBI will conduct a forward dollar/rupee buy-sell swap auction worth $5 billion on March 26, its first such move to infuse rupee liquidity into cash-strapped banks. Under this arrangement, the RBI will buy dollars from banks for three years promising a specified premium for selling back the same at maturity.

Crude oil prices are rising at a snail’s pace and are showing no signs of a correction. Problems will arise when Brent crude oil prices float over $70 for a long period of time. Central banks are better prepared to handle energy related risk as compared to last year. I read all the over the internet that Asian central banks are planning interest rate cuts. If crude oil prices zoom in the next quarter then forget interest rate cuts.

Indian rupee is not out the woods. Fundamentals have not changed. It can reverse anytime. Difficult to tell when but sure anytime in the near term. To me the lower base should be 67.00 against the US dollar (inter-bank prices). Free fall will be there below 67.00.

US dollar-Indian Rupee 27^th March 2019 future (usd/inr CMP 68.6100):

One Support: 68.3425
One Resistance: 68.7375

o      There is a massive technical congestion between 67.9500-68.1850.

o      Till future close on 27^th March, usd/inr can rise to 69.1400 and 70.0025 as long as 67.9500-68.1850 holds.

o      Today sell off will be there below 68.3425 support.

Euro/Indian Rupee 27^th March 2019 Futures (Euro/inr CMP 77.9425):
One Support: 78.7175
One Resistance: 78.0550

o      Long term support is at 77.4400

o      Till future close on 27^th March, euro/inr can rise to 79.8775 and 79.7075 as long as 77.4400.

o      Crash will be there only below 77.4400 to 77.0975 and 76.7650.

UK Pound/Indian Rupee 27^th March 2019 Futures (Gbp/inr CMP 91.1675):
One Support: 90.8125
One Resistance: 91.4425

o      Crash will be there only below 90.8125

Japanese Yen/Indian Rupee 27^th March 2019 Futures (Jpy/inr CMP 61.7750):
One Support: 61.5125
One Resistance: 62.0650.

o      Till future close on 27^th March, crash will be there only below 61.2825.

o      In case yen/inr does not fall below 61.2825. it will rise to 62.3875 and 63.6075.

Disclaimer: Any opinions as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific currencies, crypto currency, metals and commodities reflect the views of the individual analyst, In no event shall Insignia Consultants or its employees have any liability for any losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this material; or in any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of Information. Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice. Prepared by Chintan Karnani
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NOTES TO THE ABOVE REPORT

PLEASE NOTE: HOLDS MEANS HOLDS ON DAILY CLOSING BASIS

ALL PRICES ARE IN INDIAN RUPEE UNLESS OTHERWISE SPECIFIED

Indian Standard Time (IST): +5:30 GMT

Current Market Price (CMP)

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