Insignia Consultants
New Delhi
Monday, February 25, 2019
TIME: 9:24 am IST
DAILY FOREX REPORT FOR EXPORTERS AND IMPORTERS
(inter-bank prices below)
It is a big US economic data week. Federal Reserve chief
testimony among others can affect the US dollar as well. The recent wider
trading range will be broken in euro/usd, gbp/usd and usd/jpy. A new range
should be formed in these currencies.
India
I do not see big gains for the rupee
against the US dollar over the next few months. The reason is that all
political parties are making big promises for the masses. These promises will
burden government finances and also burden the middle class tax payers.
Additional cess (in everything) has been a hidden form of tax which has been
used by everything government to loot the people of India. There will be some
of additional cess on goods of mass usage once a new government is formed. Lack
of adherence to fiscal management will prevent short term hot money to flow
into India. Only a crash in US dollar Index will result in gains for the rupee.
US dollar-Indian Rupee (usd/inr CMP 71.0350):
One Support: 70.9250One Resistance: 71.0825
o
100
day moving average at 71.1450 is the key short term resistance.
o
Usd/inr
needs to break and trade over 71.1450 to rise to 71.5675.
o
Crash
will be there below 70.9250 or in case 71.1450 is not broken by tomorrow.
Euro/US dollar (euro/usd CMP
1.1340): One Support: 1.1313
One Resistance: 1.1394
o
100
day moving average is at 1.1394.
o
A
break of 1.1394 will result in 1.1441 and 1.1516.
o
Small
sell off will be there below 1.1313 and crash below 1.1279 this week.
UK Pound/US dollar (gbp/usd
CMP 1.3070): One Support: 1.3006
One Resistance: 1.3197
o
Cable
can rise to 1.3197 and 1.3300 in the short term as long as it trades over
1.3006.
o
Bearish
trend will be there if cable trades below 1.3006.
US dollar/Japanese Yen
(usd/jpy CMP 110.65): One Support: 110.41
One Resistance: 110.97-111.27
o
100
week moving average at 110.79 is the key resistance.
o
Yen
needs to trade over 110.79 to rise to 111.28 (100 day MA).
o
Yen
will break free from 110-111.50 wider trading range and form a new range
anytime soon.
US dollar/Indonesia Rupiah
(usd/idr CMP 14017.50): One Support: 14979.60
One Resistance: 14081.70
o
Rupiah
can fall to 13979 and 14955 today as long as it trades below 14081.70.
o
A
daily close below 13979.60 for three consecutive days will result in 13882.50
in the short term.
Disclaimer: Any
opinions as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of
prices of specific currencies, crypto currency, metals and commodities reflect
the views of the individual analyst, In no event shall Insignia Consultants or
its employees have any liability for any losses incurred in connection with any
decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the
information provided in this material; or in any delays, inaccuracies, errors
in, or omissions of Information. Nothing in
this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice. Prepared by
Chintan Karnani
NOTES
TO THE ABOVE REPORT
PLEASE NOTE: HOLDS
MEANS HOLDS ON DAILY CLOSING BASIS
ALL PRICES ARE IN
INDIAN RUPEE UNLESS OTHERWISE SPECIFIED
Indian Standard Time
(IST): +5:30 GMT
Current Market Price
(CMP)
All foreign exchange
prices are for inter-bank rates.
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