Insignia Consultants
New Delhi
Monday, January 28, 2019
TIME: 9:15 am IST
DAILY FOREX REPORT FOR EXPORTERS AND IMPORTERS
(inter-bank prices below)
FOMC and US nonfarm payrolls are there. They can change the
direction of every currency. US dollar Index will zoom if it there is a clear
indication of an interest rate before June. If not, then the US dollar Index
will trade with a softer bias. Fundamental weakness of Eurozone has already
been discounted in euro/usd prices. So any better than expected Eurozone
economic number release will result in euro/usd rising. Cable is bullish and
looks headed for 1.3500 in February.
India
Foreign portfolio investors have been
net sellers in January. I do not think, rupee (usd/inr) will fall below 70.0000
in February, unless the US dollar sags. Interim budget will put a big dent in
the fiscal position of India as it will be voter friendly. Fundamentals are
weak for Indian rupee. I expect 70.000-72.000 wider trading range for the rupee
(usd/inr) till end February.
US dollar-Indian Rupee (usd/inr CMP 71.0250):
One Support: 70.8950One Resistance: 71.3750
o
Small
sell off will be there below 71.2550. 70.8950.
o
Usd/in
needs to trade over 71.1950 to rise further.
o
Better to remain on the sidelines till tomorrow.
Euro/Indian Rupee (Euro/inr
CMP 81.1475): One Support: 80.8950
One Resistance: 81.4450
o
200
day moving average at 81.4450 is the key resistance.
o
Euro/inr
needs to trade over 80.8950 till Wednesday to rise to 81.8050.
o
Bearish
trend will be there only below 80.8950.
Forward
cover strategy for exporters: Use any 40-50 paisa
rise (if any) to cover near term receivables.
Forward
cover strategy for importers: Cover on spot basis.
UK Pound/Indian Rupee
(Gbp/inr CMP 93.7500): One Support: 93.4950
One Resistance: 93.9250
o
Gbp/inr
needs to trade over 93.4950 to rise to 94.7550.
o
Small
sell off will be there below 93.4950 today.
o
Look
for signs of correction.
Forward
cover strategy for exporters: Use stop loss below 91.6900
for near term receivables.
Forward
cover strategy for importers: Cover on any 30-40
paisa fall for payables till next week.
Japanese Yen/Indian Rupee
(Jpy/inr CMP 64.8800): One Support: 64.8950
One Resistance: 65.3000
o
Small
sell off will be there below 64.8950
o
Crash
will be there below 65.5000.
o
Watch
65.0000. Yen/inr can move 100-150 pips either side anytime from 65.0000.
Euro/US dollar (euro/usd CMP
1.1424): One Support: 1.1379
One Resistance: 1.1451
o
100
day moving average at 1.1451 is the key resistance.
o
Euro/usd
needs to trade over 1.1451 to rise to 1.1572.
o
Small
sell off will be there below 1.1379.
o
There
can be very sharp two way moves.
UK Pound/US dollar (gbp/usd
CMP 1.3200): One Support: 1.3088
One Resistance: 1.3259
o
100%
retracement is at 1.3259. A break of 1.3259 will result in 1.3363 and 1.3472.
o
Initial
support is at 100 week moving average at 13171 with 1.3088 as key support.
US dollar/Japanese Yen
(usd/jpy CMP 109.34): One Support: 108.88
One Resistance: 109.62
o
Yen
needs to trade over 108.98-109.15 zone to rise to 109.78 and 110.61.
o
Small
sell off will be there below 108.88.
US dollar/Indonesia Rupiah
(usd/idr CMP 14042.50): One Support: 13970.00
One Resistance: 14156.50
o
Crash
this week will be there below 13970 to 13858.50 and 13636.
o
However
in case rupiah does not fall below 13970 and trades below 13970, then it will
rise to 14256 and 14330.
Disclaimer: Any
opinions as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of
prices of specific currencies, crypto currency, metals and commodities reflect
the views of the individual analyst, In no event shall Insignia Consultants or
its employees have any liability for any losses incurred in connection with any
decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the
information provided in this material; or in any delays, inaccuracies, errors
in, or omissions of Information. Nothing in
this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice. Prepared by
Chintan Karnani
NOTES
TO THE ABOVE REPORT
PLEASE NOTE: HOLDS
MEANS HOLDS ON DAILY CLOSING BASIS
ALL PRICES ARE IN
INDIAN RUPEE UNLESS OTHERWISE SPECIFIED
Indian Standard Time
(IST): +5:30 GMT
Current Market Price
(CMP)
All foreign exchange
prices are for inter-bank rates.
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