Currency Report for Exporters and Importers : 16th October 2018

Insignia Consultants

New Delhi

Tuesday, October 16, 2018

TIME: 09:19 am IST        

         

DAILY FOREX REPORT FOR EXPORTERS AND IMPORTERS

(inter-bank prices below)

Euro and pound will be affected by their own internal politics. Retail investors are confused. Hedge funds are changing their net open positions every week. One needs to remain on the sidelines till tomorrow. Key US economic data releases are till tomorrow.

India

Global hedge funds are buying emerging market stocks. India will benefit from the same. Indian stock markets may have formed a short term bottom and bond yields may have formed a short term top. Only crude oil related risk is there.  Rest of the factors are pointing lower for the rupee against the US dollar. Festival related inflows will start to rise from next week and festival related inflows will reduce from next week.

US dollar-Indian Rupee (usd/inr CMP 73.8450):

One Support: 73.6875
One Resistance: 74.0950

o      Usd/inr can fall to 73.2325 as long as it trades below 74.0950-74.2250 zone.

o      There will be another wave of rise only over 74.0950 to 74.2250 and 74.5025.

o      Small sell off will be there below 73.6875.

Euro/Indian Rupee (Euro/inr CMP 85.5050):
One Support: 85.0350
One Resistance: 85.8575

o      Small sell off will be there only below 85.0350.

o      Trend is neutral.

o      Euro/inr needs to trade over 85.8675-86.0025 till Friday to zoom.

UK Pound/Indian Rupee (Gbp/inr CMP 97.0800):
One Support: 96.7725
One Resistance: 97.4750

o      Small sell off will be there below 96.9750

o      Crash will be there below 96.4225.

o      Cable needs to trade over 97.4750 for the rest of the week to rise further or be in bullish zone.

o      Overbrought

Japanese Yen/Indian Rupee (Jpy/inr CMP 65.9600):
One Support: 65.6675
One Resistance: 66.1250

o      Only a break of 66.1250 will trigger a rise to 66.4250 and 66.7750.

o      Small sell off will be there below 65.6675

Euro/US dollar (euro/usd CMP 1.1575):
One Support: 1.1534
One Resistance: 1.1613

o      It can rise to 1.1613 and 1.1680 as long as it trades over 1.1534.

o      Small sell off will be there below 1.1553.

o      Crash will be there only below 1.1520.

UK Pound/US dollar (gbp/usd CMP 1.3145):
One Support: 1.3113
One Resistance: 1.3195

o      Crash will be there below 1.3088 only.

o      Cable needs to trade over 1.3195-1.3230 zone to zoom.

o      There can be very sharp two way moves.

US dollar/Japanese Yen (usd/jpy CMP 111.98):
One Support: 111.72
One Resistance: 112.23

o      Yen needs to trade over 111.44 till Friday to rise to 112.67 and 113.00.

o      Crash will be there below 111.44.

o      Trend is down.

US dollar/Indonesia Rupiah (usd/idr CMP 15219.40):
One Support: 15159.60
One Resistance: 15279.80

o      Key weekly resistance is at 15302.70.

o      Chances of correction to 15108 and 15058 will be very high as long as it trades below 15302.70.

o      Momentum is bullish. Technically overbrought.

FAQ

Why Do I ask exporters and importers to use trailing stop loss? Some day’s currency markets are very volatile. Trend (short term as well as medium term) change at the flick of coin without any advance warning. In order to make the most of the volatility it is preferable to use trailing stop loss using technical analysis as basis. Those exporters and importers do not wish to take the risk, should take a forward cover or hedge in future and options market if export or import price near cost.

Disclaimer: Any opinions as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific currencies, crypto currency, metals and commodities reflect the views of the individual analyst, In no event shall Insignia Consultants or its employees have any liability for any losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this material; or in any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of Information. Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice. Prepared by Chintan Karnani

NOTES TO THE ABOVE REPORT

PLEASE NOTE: HOLDS MEANS HOLDS ON DAILY CLOSING BASIS

ALL PRICES ARE IN INDIAN RUPEE UNLESS OTHERWISE SPECIFIED

Indian Standard Time (IST): +5:30 GMT

Current Market Price (CMP)

All foreign exchange prices are for inter-bank rates.