Insignia Consultants
New Delhi
Wednesday, September 05, 2018
TIME: 9:41 am IST
DAILY FOREX REPORT FOR EXPORTERS AND IMPORTERS
(inter-bank prices below)
Euro has pared most of its yesterday’s losses against the US
dollar yesterday. It is still not out of the woods yet. Pound under performs on
Brexit uncertainty. Quicker interest rate hikes (after the Federal Reserve) can
result in a trend reversal anytime. I expect cable to rise sharply before 13th
September bank of England meeting. Yen though rising against the US dollar, is
still wider range trading. Emerging market currencies reflect slowdown risk
related to global trade war. The current weakness in emerging market currencies
is an overshot which can continue for a few weeks before a very sharp pullback.
Incoming US economic data releases suggest of a December interest rate hike. US
jobs number tomorrow and Friday need to confirm the same to prevent a US dollar
sell off.
India
The black spot is historically high petrol and diesel prices. Imported
inflation will rise. The good thing this year is that cost of food and other
surviving essentials have not risen (unlike previous years at this time).
Higher diesel prices will result in inflation being to stable to rise. I do not
foresee inflation falling over the next three months. With passing of each day
Indian importers and corporates are covering their near term payables. Once
this is over, rupee will come down. But do not expect a quick crash. Trend on
Tuesday (11th September) is the key. Some exporters are getting
cancellation losses. Do not excess short term forward cover is the message to
exporters.
One Support: 1.1540
One Resistance: 1.1632
o
Sellers
will be there below 1.1540 today.
o
Euro/usd
needs to trade over 1.1632 today to be in bullish zone and rise to 1.1776.
o
There
can be very sharp two way moves.
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Disclaimer: Any
opinions as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of
prices of specific currencies, crypto currency, metals and commodities reflect
the views of the individual analyst, In no event shall Insignia Consultants or
its employees have any liability for any losses incurred in connection with any
decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the
information provided in this material; or in any delays, inaccuracies, errors
in, or omissions of Information. Nothing in
this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice. Prepared by
Chintan Karnani
NOTES
TO THE ABOVE REPORT
PLEASE NOTE: HOLDS
MEANS HOLDS ON DAILY CLOSING BASIS
ALL PRICES ARE IN
INDIAN RUPEE UNLESS OTHERWISE SPECIFIED
Indian Standard Time
(IST): +5:30 GMT
Current Market Price
(CMP)
All foreign exchange
prices are for inter-bank rates.
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