Wednesday, 5 September 2018

Currency Report for Exporters and Importers : 5th September 2018


Insignia Consultants
New Delhi
Wednesday, September 05, 2018
TIME: 9:41 am IST          
DAILY FOREX REPORT FOR EXPORTERS AND IMPORTERS
(inter-bank prices below)
Euro has pared most of its yesterday’s losses against the US dollar yesterday. It is still not out of the woods yet. Pound under performs on Brexit uncertainty. Quicker interest rate hikes (after the Federal Reserve) can result in a trend reversal anytime. I expect cable to rise sharply before 13th September bank of England meeting. Yen though rising against the US dollar, is still wider range trading. Emerging market currencies reflect slowdown risk related to global trade war. The current weakness in emerging market currencies is an overshot which can continue for a few weeks before a very sharp pullback. Incoming US economic data releases suggest of a December interest rate hike. US jobs number tomorrow and Friday need to confirm the same to prevent a US dollar sell off.

India
The black spot is historically high petrol and diesel prices. Imported inflation will rise. The good thing this year is that cost of food and other surviving essentials have not risen (unlike previous years at this time). Higher diesel prices will result in inflation being to stable to rise. I do not foresee inflation falling over the next three months. With passing of each day Indian importers and corporates are covering their near term payables. Once this is over, rupee will come down. But do not expect a quick crash. Trend on Tuesday (11th September) is the key. Some exporters are getting cancellation losses. Do not excess short term forward cover is the message to exporters.

Euro/US dollar (euro/usd CMP 1.1596):
One Support: 1.1540
One Resistance: 1.1632
o      Sellers will be there below 1.1540 today.
o      Euro/usd needs to trade over 1.1632 today to be in bullish zone and rise to 1.1776.
o      There can be very sharp two way moves.
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Disclaimer: Any opinions as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific currencies, crypto currency, metals and commodities reflect the views of the individual analyst, In no event shall Insignia Consultants or its employees have any liability for any losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this material; or in any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of Information. Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice. Prepared by Chintan Karnani
NOTES TO THE ABOVE REPORT
PLEASE NOTE: HOLDS MEANS HOLDS ON DAILY CLOSING BASIS
ALL PRICES ARE IN INDIAN RUPEE UNLESS OTHERWISE SPECIFIED
Indian Standard Time (IST): +5:30 GMT
Current Market Price (CMP)
All foreign exchange prices are for inter-bank rates.

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