Insignia Consultants
New Delhi
Wednesday, September 12, 2018
TIME: 9:28 am IST
DAILY FOREX REPORT FOR EXPORTERS AND IMPORTERS
(inter-bank prices below)
US US PPI numbers today, bank of England meeting, ECB meeting
and US CPI numbers tomorrow will be the key. Just trade in the technical and
ignore the news. Traders will be looking forward to December interest rate hike
as September is already factored in by the markets.
Right now the focus of the global markets is on hurricane
Florence which is expected to enter US east coast by tomorrow. The damage and
its impact on US economy (if any) will be the key. Markets are now assessing
the job losses in China and slowdown in Chinese economy due to Trump and his
trade wars. The next four days till Monday will be very volatile for the
currency markets. Cable will rise as Brexit deal is certain.
India
The renewed rise in global crude oil price will act a headache
to Indian economy and the people of India. The government does not want to
reduce crude oil prices as it wants to maintain fiscal prudence. The political
mudsling on petrol price, defence deals, bad loans of banks etc is now the
daily headline on newspapers as well as googlenews. Long term global investors
will be on the sidelines. Interest rate by the RBI next month is more or less a
done deal. Tomorrow Indian financial markets are closed due to Ganesh
Chaturthi. Traders will start taking positions for Friday. Spot Value dated
sifts to Monday. Watch for profit taking in long usd/inr positons before holiday
of tomorrow.
US dollar-Indian Rupee (usd/inr CMP 72.8650):
One Support: 72.6275One Resistance: 73.0100
o
Only
a break of 73.0100 will result in a rise to 73.1825 and 73.5775.
o
Key
support is at 72.6275. Sellers will be there below 72.6725
o
Momentum
is very bullish for the rupee at the moment.
US dollar/Indonesia Rupiah
(usd/idr CMP 14893.20): One Support: 14814.70
One Resistance: 14906.0
o
There
will be another wave of rise only over 14906.00 to 14968 and 15035.
o
Trend
is neutral.
o
Bearish
trend will be there below 14782.00
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FAQ
Why Do I ask exporters
and importers to use trailing stop loss? Some
day’s currency markets are very volatile. Trend (short term as well as medium
term) change at the flick of coin without any advance warning. In order to make
the most of the volatility it is preferable to use trailing stop loss using
technical analysis as basis. Those exporters and importers do not wish to take
the risk, should take a forward cover or hedge in future and options market if
export or import price near cost.
Disclaimer: Any
opinions as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of
prices of specific currencies, crypto currency, metals and commodities reflect
the views of the individual analyst, In no event shall Insignia Consultants or
its employees have any liability for any losses incurred in connection with any
decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the
information provided in this material; or in any delays, inaccuracies, errors
in, or omissions of Information. Nothing in
this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice. Prepared by
Chintan Karnani
NOTES
TO THE ABOVE REPORT
PLEASE NOTE: HOLDS
MEANS HOLDS ON DAILY CLOSING BASIS
ALL PRICES ARE IN INDIAN
RUPEE UNLESS OTHERWISE SPECIFIED
Indian Standard Time
(IST): +5:30 GMT
Current Market Price
(CMP)
All foreign exchange
prices are for inter-bank rates.
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