Insignia
Consultants
New Delhi
Monday, August 20,
2018
FOREX SPOT WEEKLY TECHNICAL REPORT
(inter-bank prices below)
Friday’s
rise in euro and pound was just short covering. If euro and pound rise till
Wednesday, then some of the shorts will get converted into long positions. Trend
in the first three days of the week is crucial as there is no big economic data
release globally. FOMC minutes on Wednesday will be the key. US dollar will
gain further if Turkey-US spat escalates further. Any indications that the
expected China-US trade talks will be damn squib will be also be bullish for
the greenback. Currency prices have a tendency to overshoot or undershoot
expectations. US dollar can overshoot expectation and when it is least expected
to crash will nosedive. I expect the US dollar to weaken this week.
Asian
central banks are on an interest raising spree to prevent their currencies from
further decline and also be competitive against the US dollar. Fundamentals
will be the key to price moves of Asian currencies.
India
at a glance
There
is hell of a media hype in India over the current weakness of the rupee. A
weaker currency is good for the nation as it reduces imports, helps exports and
also support local manufacturing from very cheap Chinese imports. Only negative
of a weak rupee is a rise on the energy bill and defence imports. I favor a
weaker currency. Most of the Indian politicians are never nationalists. They
have their own personal motives when they speak on the media or tweet. Support
rupee falls to 66.00 against the US dollar by end September, the Chinese
imports will zoom. The labor intensive tiny and small scale manufacturers will
suffer due to a strong rupee. China is already using India as a dumping ground
for its products (after the US induced trade tariff war). Did the Indian
politician while uttering and making fake claims think about the benefit a
weaker currency does to support labour intensive manufacturing sector?
Direction
of the rupee will be based on the US dollar. There is nothing much internally.
Growth rates will be the stable to lower. I do not expect a jump in Indian
growth rates. To me a statistically higher jobless growth rates is not needed
by the nation. Most of the exporters have already sold off. A short trading
week once again with currency markets closed on Wednesday due to “Bakri Eid”.
UK
Pound -Indian Rupee (gbp/inr)
Current
Market Price: 88.9900
Support:
86.2925-86.9400-87.6425-87.9575-88.3550-88.6550
Resistance:
89.4325-89.7650-90.0225-90.4125-91.0425
Weekly
View:
· 100% retracement is at
87.0200 is the key long term support.
· 200 day moving average
at 89.7650 is the key weekly resistance.
· There will be another
wave of rise over 89.7650 to 90.8600 and 91.6875.
· Sellers or bearish
trend will be there below 88.0550 for the rest of the month.
US
dollar-Japanese Yen (usd/jpy)
Current
Market Price: 110.55
Support:
108.47-108.96-109.49-110.03-110.20
Resistance:
110.82-111.17-111.51-111.83-112.06-112.55
Weekly
View:
· 100 day moving average
at 110.35 is the immediate support.
· 200 day moving average
at 109.81 is the key support.
· Yen can fall to 108.47
and 106.96 as long as it trades below 111.51.
· Crash to 106.96 will be
there if usd/jpy falls below 109.81.
TO
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Disclaimer: Any opinions as to the commentary, market information, and future
direction of prices of specific currencies, crypto currency, metals and
commodities reflect the views of the individual analyst, In no event shall
Insignia Consultants or its employees have any liability for any losses
incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any
party in reliance upon the information provided in this material; or in any
delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of Information. Nothing in this article is, or should be construed
as, investment advice. Prepared by Chintan Karnani
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