Currency Update for Exporters and Importers :10th August 2018

Insignia Consultants

New Delhi

Friday, August 10, 2018

TIME: 9:25 am IST          

DAILY FOREX REPORT FOR EXPORTERS AND IMPORTERS

(inter-bank prices below)

Russian rouble and Turkish Lira got battered. Euro which was holding its ground against the US dollar till yesterday night also crashed. Even nation is concerned over the trade war started by trump. There is slowdown expectations. US is the only firm growth story. US dollar and US stock markets is getting benefit of the same. Momentum continues to be very bullish for the US dollar. Only some weekend profit taking can bring it down.

India

A firm US dollar will prevent big gains for the rupee. Rupee will sing the global tune. There is nothing much on the domestic front. Short term fundamentals of the Indian economy is not as rosy as it has been predicted by statistics and the media. Rupee will zoom against the US dollar if and when fundamentals override momentum. Bond market investment by foreign firms will dictate the direction of the rupee for the rest of the month.
Japanese Yen/Indian Rupee (Jpy/inr CMP 62.0200):
One Support: 61.7850
One Resistance: 62.1300

o      Yen can rise to 62.4900 and 62.7600 by next week as long as it trades over 61.6350.

o      Sell off will be there below 61.9450 today.

Euro/US dollar (euro/usd CMP 1.1532):
One Support: 1.1509
One Resistance: 1.1588

o      100% retracement is at 1.1509. There will be another wave of sell off below 1.1509 to 1.1469 and 1.1413

o      Trend is bearish.

o      It needs to trade over 1.1580 to rise further.

US dollar/Japanese Yen (usd/jpy CMP 110.87):
One Support: 110.68
One Resistance: 111.28

o      There is a technical congestion between 110.08-110.27-110.59 zone.

o      Trend is down.

o      Yen can fall to 110.27 and 110.08 as long as it trades below 111.28.

o      Yen needs to trade over 111.28 to be in intraday bullish zone.

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FAQ

Why Do I ask exporters and importers to use trailing stop loss? Some day’s currency markets are very volatile. Trend (short term as well as medium term) change at the flick of coin without any advance warning. In order to make the most of the volatility it is preferable to use trailing stop loss using technical analysis as basis. Those exporters and importers do not wish to take the risk, should take a forward cover or hedge in future and options market if export or import price near cost.