Currency Report for Exporters and Importers :9th August 2018

Insignia Consultants

New Delhi

Thursday, August 09, 2018

TIME: 9:08 am IST          

DAILY FOREX REPORT FOR EXPORTERS AND IMPORTERS

(inter-bank prices below)

Cable got battered on Brexit fears. The producer price index numbers today and tomorrow’s consumer price index numbers will once again confirm two more interest rate hike this year. The US dollar will get ripped apart if there is any indication of just one more interest rate hike this year. Trump and his trade war news will continues to affect currency markets. I prefer buying some far dated US dollar Index put options. Trade wars are short term gains and long term pain for the greenback.

USA imposing new set of trade sanctions against Russia will not impact currency markets.

India

Foreign inflows continue to be positive in Indian stock markets and Indian bond markets. The political mudslinging has started. Defence deal as usual are the first culprits. Political stability is something which the investors will be looking. The current NDA government has been caught on the wrong foot by a united opposition. There is no unity within the NDA. Global trend are more crucial in the short term. In the long term political factors will affect global investors.

US dollar-Indian Rupee (usd/inr CMP 68.5050):

One Support: 68.3125
One Resistance: 68.6150

o      Sell off will be there only below 68.3150.

o      The region between 68.3150-68.6150 is any anything can happen zone.

o      Rise will be there only on a break of 68.6150

Euro/Indian Rupee (Euro/inr CMP 79.5850):
One Support: 79.5400
One Resistance: 79.8950

o      A break of 79.8950 will trigger a rise to 80.4700.

o      Trend is neutral.

o      Sellers will be there below 79.5400.

Japanese Yen/Indian Rupee (Jpy/inr CMP 61.8200):
One Support: 61.7850
One Resistance: 62.0550

o      Yen can rise to 62.4900 and 62.7600 by next week as long as it trades over 61.6350.

o      Sell off will be there below 61.6350.

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FAQ

Why Do I ask exporters and importers to use trailing stop loss? Some day’s currency markets are very volatile. Trend (short term as well as medium term) change at the flick of coin without any advance warning. In order to make the most of the volatility it is preferable to use trailing stop loss using technical analysis as basis. Those exporters and importers do not wish to take the risk, should take a forward cover or hedge in future and options market if export or import price near cost.

Disclaimer: Any opinions as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific currencies, crypto currency, metals and commodities reflect the views of the individual analyst, In no event shall Insignia Consultants or its employees have any liability for any losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this material; or in any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of Information. Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice. Prepared by Chintan Karnani

NOTES TO THE ABOVE REPORT

PLEASE NOTE: HOLDS MEANS HOLDS ON DAILY CLOSING BASIS

ALL PRICES ARE IN INDIAN RUPEE UNLESS OTHERWISE SPECIFIED

Indian Standard Time (IST): +5:30 GMT

Current Market Price (CMP)

All foreign exchange prices are for inter-bank rates.