DAILY FOREX REPORT FOR EXPORTERS AND IMPORTERS
(inter-bank prices below)
World
Trump-Juncker
trade deal should be bullish for the euro. European central bank press
conference today will set the direction for the currency. There are more short
positions in euro than longs. Next week is more crucial with the bank of japan
meeting, FOMC and US July nonfarm payrolls. Trend in currency markets can
change anytime from Tuesday. In my view, the US dollar Index has formed a
medium term top and looks headed for 92 and 89.60 in August.
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CURRENCY
SPOT TECHNICAL LEVELS
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||||
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EURO/USD
|
GBP/USD
|
USD/JPY
|
USD/IDR
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CMP
|
1.1734
|
1.3202
|
110.80
|
14444.80
|
|
S5
|
1.1560
|
1.2992
|
109.96
|
14,324.70
|
|
S4
|
1.1603
|
1.3042
|
110.18
|
14,359.88
|
|
S3
|
1.1649
|
1.3096
|
110.41
|
14,398.00
|
|
S2
|
1.1670
|
1.3120
|
110.52
|
14,415.30
|
|
S1
|
1.1696
|
1.3150
|
110.65
|
14,436.70
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
R1
|
1.1780
|
1.3248
|
111.07
|
14,505.90
|
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R2
|
1.1806
|
1.3278
|
111.20
|
14,527.30
|
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R3
|
1.1827
|
1.3303
|
111.31
|
14,544.60
|
|
R4
|
1.1873
|
1.3356
|
111.54
|
14,582.72
|
|
R5
|
1.1916
|
1.3406
|
111.76
|
14,617.90
|
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ALL
PRICES VERSUS THE US DOLLARS ABOVE
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||||
|
CMP =
Current Market Price
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||||
|
ABOVE
TECHNICALS ARE ONLY FOR REFERENCE
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India
Securities
and exchange board of India’s proposal to increase trade timings of futures and
options in the Indian stock markets to 11:55pm from current 3:30pm will
result in higher FII inflows into Indian stock markets from October. Daily more
regulations are being made to ensure better investor protections and trader
protection. Global investors will continue to increase their investment in
Indian stock market. The rot in the state run banking system has already been
factored in by the stock markets. Regulatory news will be the key for the rupee
as well. If crude oil prices continue to rise globally then downside risk will
be limited.
US dollar-Indian Rupee
(usd/inr CMP 68.7025):
One
Support: 68.6025
One
Resistance: 68.8700
o There will be another wave of sell off below
68.6025 to 68.3425.
o Rupee needs to trade over 68.8700 to be in
bullish zone.
Forward cover strategy
for exporters: Use any 30-40 paisa rise
to cover receivables till Monday.
Forward cover strategy
for importers: Use a stop loss over
69.1200 for near term payables.
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CURRENCY
SPOT TECHNICAL LEVELS
|
||||
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USD/INR
JUNE
|
EURO/INR
JUNE
|
GBP/INR
JUNE
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JPY/INR
JUNE
|
|
CMP
|
68.6950
|
80.6125
|
90.7075
|
62.0100
|
|
S5
|
68.2450
|
79.9950
|
89.5250
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61.0700
|
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S4
|
68.3425
|
80.1576
|
89.8544
|
61.2956
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S3
|
68.4691
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80.3338
|
90.2113
|
61.5400
|
|
S2
|
68.6063
|
80.4137
|
90.3732
|
61.6509
|
|
S1
|
68.6685
|
80.5126
|
90.5736
|
61.7882
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
R1
|
68.8650
|
80.8324
|
91.2214
|
62.2318
|
|
R2
|
68.9945
|
80.9313
|
91.4218
|
62.3691
|
|
R3
|
69.0715
|
81.0113
|
91.5838
|
62.4800
|
|
R4
|
69.1338
|
81.1874
|
91.9406
|
62.7244
|
|
R5
|
69.2709
|
81.3500
|
92.2700
|
62.9500
|
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ALL
PRICES VERSUS THE INDIAN RUPEE ABOVE
|
||||
|
CMP =
Current Market Price
|
||||
|
ABOVE
TECHNICALS ARE ONLY FOR REFERENCE
|
||||
Euro/Indian Rupee (Euro/inr CMP 80.5900):
One
Support: 80.3325
One
Resistance: 80.8325
o Euro/inr can rise to 81.3500 by Monday as
long as it trades over 80.1575.
o Sell off will be there only below 80.1575
till tomorrow.
Forward cover strategy
for exporters: Use a stop loss below
79.79 for short term receivables.
Forward cover strategy
for importers: Cover on any 30-40
paisa fall for payables till next week.
UK Pound/Indian Rupee (Gbp/inr CMP 90.7000):
One
Support: 90.5725
One
Resistance: 91.2225
o Gbp/inr can rise to 91.5850 by Monday as
long as it trades over 90.2125.
o Sellers will be there below 90.2125 till Monday.
Forward cover strategy
for exporters: Use a stop loss below
90.2125 for receivables till Monday.
Forward cover
strategy for importers: Cover on any 30-40 paisa fall for payables till tomorrow.
Japanese Yen/Indian Rupee (Jpy/inr CMP 62.0000):
One
Support: 61.7875
One
Resistance: 62.4800
o Yen can rise to 62.4800 as long as it trades
over 61.7875.
o Today sellers will be there below 61.7875.
Euro/US dollar (euro/usd CMP 1.1732):
One
Support: 1.1696
One
Resistance: 1.1780
o Euro/usd needs to trade over 1.1696 till tomorrow to
rise to 1.1827.
o It will crash only if it trades below 1.1696 after
the ECB press conference.
UK Pound/US dollar (gbp/usd CMP 1.3200):
One
Support: 1.3150
One
Resistance: 1.3248
o Cable can rise to 1.3304 by tomorrow as
long as it trade over 1.3120.
o Sell off will be there only below 1.3120
today.
US dollar/Japanese Yen (usd/jpy CMP 110.81):
One
Support: 110.41
One
Resistance: 111.07
o Yen can fall to 110.41 and 109.96 as long as
it trades below 111.40.
o Look for signs of trend reversal after the ECB
press conference.
US dollar/Indonesia Rupiah (usd/idr CMP 14440.30):
One
Support: 14405.00
One
Resistance: 14475.30
o Support is between 14360-14390-14405. There
will be another wave of sell off below this zone to 14305-14255 and 13960.
o Rupiah needs to trade over 14475 today to be
in intraday bullish zone.
FAQ
Why Do I ask exporters
and importers to use trailing stop loss? Some day’s currency markets are very volatile.
Trend (short term as well as medium term) change at the flick of coin without
any advance warning. In order to make the most of the volatility it is
preferable to use trailing stop loss using technical analysis as basis. Those
exporters and importers do not wish to take the risk, should take a forward
cover or hedge in future and options market if export or import price near
cost.
Disclaimer: Any opinions as to the commentary, market
information, and future direction of prices of specific currencies, crypto
currency, metals and commodities reflect the views of the individual analyst,
In no event shall Insignia Consultants or its employees have any liability for
any losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction
taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this material;
or in any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of Information. Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as,
investment advice. Prepared by Chintan Karnani
NOTES TO THE ABOVE
REPORT
PLEASE NOTE: HOLDS
MEANS HOLDS ON DAILY CLOSING BASIS
ALL PRICES ARE IN
INDIAN RUPEE UNLESS OTHERWISE SPECIFIED
Indian Standard Time
(IST): +5:30 GMT
Current Market Price
(CMP)
All foreign exchange
prices are for inter-bank rates.
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