Friday 11 July 2014

11th July 2014: US dollar-Indian Rupee (inter-bank rates) view

Indian budget

The budget did not have any big ticket things as the investors were expecting. Two things which were announced yesterday and which will exude greater confidence among global investors in India (a) Focus on rationalization on custom duties and other taxes so as to avert disputes (b) Using taxation as means to reduce the price disparity between certain domestically manufactured goods and imported goods. This will draw more and more global companies to set up a manufacturing base in India. One thing which global investors wanted and did happen was withdrawal of retrospective tax amendment. This can be modified in the coming months. The increase in free limits for personal taxes will increase savings and consumption. There has been a lot of focus on creating and protecting jobs in the rural areas. There were measures to prevent exodus of rural population to mega cities. 

Technically speaking
Usd/inr has a key resistance at 60.36 (current price 60.15) and only a break of 60.36 will result in  60.76-61.10. Rupee could consolidate in 59.92-60.12-6036 range for the time being. Short term forward premiums could rise while far dated forward premiums will find sellers on rise.

Disclaimer: Any opinions as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific currencies, metals and commodities reflect the views of the individual analyst, In no event shall Insignia Consultants or its employees  have any liability for any losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this material; or in any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of Information. Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice. 

NOTES TO THE ABOVE REPORT 
ALL PRICES ARE IN INDIAN RUPEE UNLESS OTHERWISE SPECIFIED


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