19th October: Forex Report

Insignia Consultants

New Delhi

Friday, October 19, 2012

TIME: 09:30 am IST            

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NSE CURRNCY FUTURES/MCX-SX CURRENCY FUTURES TECHNICAL REPORT

(All prices are in Indian rupees below in this report)

Commentary

HEADLINE: Rupee  intra day volatility is expected to be high. Technically Weak.

Technical break out on the higher side and subsequent stop losses getting triggered resulted in rise of major currencies against the rupee towards the close yesterday. If the rupee weakens today then importers will start covering their near term payables on any twenty five to thirty paisa dip. US dollar demand is exceeding supplies at the moment. We just need to trade carefully today. If the rupee weakens against the major currencies during the day then there will be profit taking towards the close.

Usd/Inr: The key short term resistance is at 54.07 and as long as rupee does not break 54.07 importers are safe. Only a daily close below 53.11 will result in bearish trend else dips are a buying opportunity.

Euro/Usd: It can rise to 1.3500 as long as it trades over 1.2800 in short term.

Euro/Inr: Euro/Inr can rise to 70.47 and 71.17 as long as it trades over 69.6750.

DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
Friday, October 19, 2012
	LTP	50 DAY MA	100 DAY MA	200 DAY MA
US DOLLAR-INDIAN RUPEE
SPOT	53.6600	54.2486	54.9298	53.1199
FORWARD PREMIUMS
1 MTH	30.50	33.21	34.09	35.56
2 MTH	60.00	64.73	66.24	68.55
3 MTH	86.50	94.40	96.11	98.69
6 MTH	164.50	178.08	176.44	177.36
9 MTH	235.25	256.52	250.92	247.23
12 MTH	299.50	324.15	318.10	310.12

 

Trading strategy For the very large traders and high risk traders

USD/INR OCTOBER: Buy only if usd/inr trades over 53.4625 for 53.6425-53.7650 with a strict stop loss

EURO/INR OCTOBER: Sell euro/inr around 70.5500 stop loss 70.9600 target 69.4425-69.0750

GBP/INR OCTOBER: Buy gbp/inr only if trades over 86.0800 for 86.2350-86.5850

JPY/INR OCTOBER: Sell only if jpy/inr trades below 67.1225

TECHNICAL VIEW –NSE CURRENCY FUTURES/MCX-SX

US-DOLLAR – INDIAN RUPEE (USD/INR) OCTOBER – (CURRENT PRICE 53.3425)

Bullish over 53.1425 with 53.6025-54.0125 as price target

Bearish below 52.9850 with 52.6750 and 52.3975 as price target

Neutral Zone: 52.9850-53.1425

BREAK POINT: - 53.6025

·         Usd/Inr looks headed for 53.8025 and 54.2250 as long as it trades over 53.1425

·         Only a fall below 53.1425 will result in intra day bearish zone, else dips are buying opportunity.

EURO-INDIA RUPEE (EUR/INR) OCTOBER – (CURRENT PRICE 69.8375)

Bullish over 69.4425 with 70.0050-70.5525 as price target

Bearish below 69.0450 with 68.8700-68.5650 as price target

Neutral Zone: 69.0450-69.4425

BREAK POINT: 69.7800

• Euro/Inr can rise to 70.5525 as long as it trades over 69.4425
• There will be sellers only 69.4425 only

UK POUND -INDIA RUPEE (GBP/INR) OCTOBER – (CURRENT PRICE 86.0375)

Bullish over 86.0800 with 86.5600 and 87.2500 as price target

Bearish below 85.8400 with 85.5950 and 85.2950 as price target

Neutral Zone: 85.8400-86.0800

BREAK POINT: 86.0800

·         So far so good for cable but it needs to trade over 86.0800 to target for 86.5600 and 87.2500.

·         A daily close over 86.0800 today will be bullish for cable in short term.

JAPANESE YEEN -INDIA RUPEE (JPY/INR) OCTOBER – (CURRENT PRICE 67.2375)

Bullish over 66.9450 with 67.6475 and 67.9800 as price target

Bearish below 66.8400 with 66.6950 and 66.5025 as price target

Neutral Zone: 66.8400-66.9450

BREAK POINT: - 67.1450

• There is a technical congestion between 67.6400 and 67.7425 and as yen needs to break this zone for 68.88. As long as yen does not break this zone it will fall to 66.7050 and 65.9400

Happy profitable trading & Trade without emotions

Disclaimer: Any opinions as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific currencies, metals and commodities reflect the views of the individual analyst, In no event shall Insignia Consultants or its employees  have any liability for any losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this material; or in any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of Information. Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice. Website www.insigniaconsultants.in, www.insigniaindia.com

Disclosure: The directors have short positions in usd/inr.

"Print this report only if absolutely necessary. Save Paper. Save Trees."

NOTES TO THE ABOVE REPORT

PLEASE NOTE: HOLDS MEANS HOLDS ON DAILY CLOSING BASIS

PLEASE USE APPROPRIATE STOP LOSSES ON INTRA DAY TRADES TO LIMIT LOSSES.

ALL PRICES ARE IN INDIAN RUPEE UNLESS OTHERWISE SPECIFIED

THE TIME GIVEN IN THE REPORT IS THE TIME OF COMPLETION OF REPORT

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