11th September: Indian Rupee report for exporters and importers

Insignia Consultants

New Delhi

Tuesday, September 11, 2012

TIME: 01:33 pm IST               

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FOREX REPORT FOR EXPORTERS AND IMPORTERS

Rupee is trading at 55.4300 against the US dollar as I prepare this report. There is speculation that diesel and LPG prices can be raised anytime. If this happens rupee will fall to 54.50 and further to 53.50 over the coming months. Markets will be looking forward to new measures to attract foreign inflows into India. The next seven days will be crucial for the rupee.

DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
	LTP	% CHG	52WK HIGH	52WK LOW	50 DAY MA	100 DAY MA	200 DAY MA
INDIAN RUPEE
SPOT	55.4300	-0.02	57.3250	46.9900	55.4721	55.1790	53.0268
1 MTH	34.50	2.99	49.25	13.75	35.14	34.99	36.03
2 MTH	68.25	-3.19	82.75	24.5	68.61	67.75	68.91
3 MTH	97.50	-1.27	114.75	34.5	99.92	98.39	98.79
6 MTH	185.50	-1.07	203	56.75	185.24	177.89	176.41
9 MTH	268.25	-1.2	279	74.25	262.82	249.17	243.32
12 MTH	337.50	-1.24	348.5	91	330.59	315.21	302.47

 

Near term forward premiums should remain firm with possibility of one month forward premium rising to 39.00 over the next fortnight while one year forward premium should fall to 328 paisa and below in the next fortnight.

Hedging strategy for exporters and importers

We prefer exporters to sell one year forward while importers should use a stop loss of 56.14 for end September payables and a stop loss of 56.70 for far dated payables.

Euro/Inr is trading at 70.9425 and can rise to 71.90-72.90 over the coming weeks. However gains in euro/inr over 71.50 will be short lived. We also prefer exporters selling one year forward at current prices and to use  stop loss of 69.50 on their near term payables.

Euro/Inr importers should use a stop loss of 72.62 for their payables after six months and use a stop loss of 71.56 for their near term payables.

Disclaimer: Any opinions as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific currencies, metals and commodities reflect the views of the individual analyst, In no event shall Insignia Consultants or its employees  have any liability for any losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this material; or in any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of Information. Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice. Website www.insigniaconsultants.in.

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NOTES TO THE ABOVE REPORT

PLEASE NOTE: HOLDS MEANS HOLDS ON DAILY CLOSING BASIS

PLEASE USE APPROPRIATE STOP LOSSES ON INTRA DAY TRADES TO LIMIT LOSSES.

PLEASE USE A STOP LOSS OF MINIMUM RS.5000-RS.8000 PER LOT ON ALL INTRA DAY TRADES

ALL PRICES ARE IN INDIAN RUPEE UNLESS OTHERWISE SPECIFIED

APPROPRIATE STOP LOSSES PER LOT IN INDIAN RUPEEES ON THE TRADING CALLS GIVEN IN THIS REPORT

GOLD – 15000-16000

SILVER: 15000-16000

COPPER: 2500-3500

CRUDE OIL: 3800-5000

ZINC: 4000-6000

LEAD: 5000-6000

NICKEL: 2500-5000

NATURAL GAS: 4000-6000

THE TIME GIVEN IN THE REPORT IS THE TIME OF COMPLETION OF REPORT

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