Weekly Indian Rupee Review and Outlook for Next Week

Insignia Consultants

New Delhi

www.insigniaconsultants.in

 

Friday, July 27, 2012

 

 TIME 05:30 PM IST                          

 

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WEEKLY INDIAN RUPEE REVIEW AND OUTLOOK FOR NEXT WEEK

 

There is huge concern that drought in India will slowdown growth and result in further weakness of the rupee to 58.00 and more against the US dollar. This has resulted on continued weakness of the rupee against the major currencies. Global bearish sentiment on economy further added to rupee woes.  The lagging effects of a weaker currency by way of higher exports and lower imports will be felt from September onwards. Intra day volatility will be high next week. Among the global factors to watch next week are US July non farm payrolls and US FOMC statement on 31^st July. Domestic factors to watch are announcement (if any) of growth measures by the UPA government.

 

 

USD/INR

Rupee should trade in 54.60-56.60 wider range. Further gains will be there only if (A) Rupee does not break 56.60 next week then it will fall to 54.60 and 53.75 (B) Rupee remains below 55.20 for two consecutive days then it will fall to 54.60 and 53.75

 

Exporters: Use a trailing stop loss of 54.48 on the short term receivables.

Importers: Use a trailing stop loss of 56.35 for the short term payables.

 

EURO/INR

 

67.60 is the key support and euro/inr can rise to 68.90-70.25 as long as it trades over 67.60. Only a daily close below 67.60 for two consecutive days will result in 66.60 and 66.10.

Exporters: Use a trailing stop loss of 66.60 on the short term receivables.

Importers: Use a trailing stop loss of 69.52 for the short term payables.

 

Forward Premiums

 

One year forward premiums should trade over 300 paisa mark next week as well. One month forward premium should fall below 30 paisa.  

 

 

 

Disclaimer: Any opinions as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific currencies, metals and commodities reflect the views of the individual analyst, In no event shall Insignia Consultants or its employees  have any liability for any losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this material; or in any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of Information. Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.

NOTES TO THE ABOVE REPORT

PLEASE NOTE: HOLDS MEANS HOLDS ON DAILY CLOSING BASIS

ALL PRICES IN INDIAN RUPEES UNLESS OTHERWISE SPECIFIED

 

 

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