1st August: Indian rupee review and outlook

Insignia Consultants

New Delhi

www.insigniaconsultants.in

 

Wednesday, August 01, 2012

 

 TIME 10:08 AM IST                          

 

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INDIAN RUPEE REVIEW AND OUTLOOK

 

Low growth and high price of essential commodities will continue in India as per the RBI in its half yearly review of the economy. The new finance minister Mr.P.Chidambaram has always been (In the past) very friendly for the Indian stock markets. Even foreign investors know this and they will also bring in more money into the Indian economy. Intra day volatility should fall over the coming weeks as the new finance minister takes charge. Fundamentals of the Indian economy are weak so do not expect any magic band from the finance minister. Rupee will appreciate but at also slow and steady pace.

 

 

USD/INR

Rupee should trade in 55.40-56.20 wider range. Further gains will be there only if rupee trades below 56.60.

 

Key support: 55.60

Key resistance: 56.25

 

Exporters: Use a trailing stop loss of 55.30 on the near term receivables.

Importers: Use a trailing stop loss of 56.35 for the near term payables.

 

EURO/INR

 

Euro-rupee can fall to 67.98 and 67.90 as long it trades below 68.80. There will be a technical break out on higher side only over 68.80.

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Exporters: Use a trailing stop loss of 67.90 on the near term receivables.

Importers: Use a trailing stop loss of 68.80 for the near term payables.

 

Forward Premiums

 

One year forward premiums can fall to 323 paisa from the current 333 paisa while near dated forward premiums should rise.

 

 

 

Disclaimer: Any opinions as to the commentary, market information, and future direction of prices of specific currencies, metals and commodities reflect the views of the individual analyst, In no event shall Insignia Consultants or its employees  have any liability for any losses incurred in connection with any decision made, action or inaction taken by any party in reliance upon the information provided in this material; or in any delays, inaccuracies, errors in, or omissions of Information. Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.

NOTES TO THE ABOVE REPORT

PLEASE NOTE: HOLDS MEANS HOLDS ON DAILY CLOSING BASIS

ALL PRICES IN INDIAN RUPEES UNLESS OTHERWISE SPECIFIED

 

 

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